Probability and Impact Matrix

One of the things I learned in my professional life was that it would never be possible to effectively manage the project by simply identifying the risks. Therefore, it is necessary not only to define the risks, but also to have an idea about the realization of these risks. If we can predict the probabilities of the risks and have an idea about the impact they will have if they do occur, we can see the problems that may arise during the life of the project, find the right answers to these risks and make rational decisions. 

One of my favorite tools that we can use at this point is the probability and impact matrix. As you can understand from its name, it predicts the likelihood of risks and evaluates their possible effects on your project. The first thing to do when using the matrix is to divide the probabilities and effects into certain groups according to their quantity. Afterwards, these grouped risks are prioritized, starting with the ones with the highest impact or those with the highest probability. The factor we need to consider while doing this is to what extent these possibilities and impacts can affect the project objectives.

Organizational process assets are another input that needs to be evaluated while creating the probability and impact matrix. Most organizations also have an approach to how they will handle risks prior to the project. They embody this approach by creating a risk management plan. Expert opinion is the main tool to use this method.

See also: 

Risk Management Knowledge Area