Decision Tree Analysis in the PMP Exam

My last decision was one minute before I wrote this article. It's still very fresh. This decision was one of hundreds of decisions I made during the day. I made a decision analysis for all of them myself. Of course, these decisions were not big enough to affect the value delivery of a project. If the decisions in question are going to affect the success of a project, it's wise to take a more systematic and scientific approach. decision tree analysis Project management is a technique that involves making decisions that directly affect the success of a project. Decision tree analysis, project managers often use this method, guided by different sources and tools, to make informed decisions.

So, What is Decision Tree Analysis?

Every decision you make has a potential consequence. Decision tree analysis helps project managers analyze these results by providing a representation. In this context. as a project manager you should create a diagram that shows all the possible options, the possibilities and the consequences of each option.  You see the potential risks of every decision you have to make as a project manager this way. You will have an idea of what you can gain and you can act more consciously thanks to it.

When to Use?

As we just said, it is very useful for bringing out the potential risks that may emerge as a result of a decision. It tells you what you can gain as well as the risks. You have made a decision, but what consequences might this decision have on the project outputs? It gives you an approach to find out the answer to this question.And perhaps the most functional feature gives you a choice.  It is useful in the planning performance domain.

How to Apply?

As a project manager, it's up to you to customize your steps, of course, but it's typically recommended to follow the steps below.

  • Always start by identifying the decisions you need to make at work. You cannot analyze something that is uncertain.
  • Make a list of all possible options associated with this decision. So that your potential paths are clear.
  • Set probabilities for each option and consequences for each possibility.  Your decision will be based on these results ultimately.
  • Calculate the expected value will be for each option. By doing this you will have a chance to make a numeric evaluation of the decision.
  • The highest expected value is the decision you need to make. It will be easy for you to choose at this stage. It is an objective result

By applying decision tree analysis in project management, you can make informed decisions that increase the chances of a project's success.

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